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Optimize Your Inventory with Smart Min/Max: Demand Forecast Methodology

Understand Smart Min/Max's Demand Forecast methodology: an AI-powered approach that predicts your optimal inventory levels based on 8 weeks of historical data and 4 weeks of demand forecasting

What is Smart Min/Max?

Smart Min/Max is Ply's AI-powered inventory optimization feature that automatically calculates optimal minimum and maximum stock levels for each location. Instead of manually setting fixed stock levels, Smart Min/Max analyzes your actual usage data to recommend levels that balance inventory availability with capital efficiency.

Smart Min/Max offers two different calculation methodologies to suit your business needs:

  • Demand Forecast: Uses historical usage + predicted future demand (recommended)

  • Rolling Calculation: Uses simple 30-day average of past consumption

You'll find this feature under Settings > Procurement > Smart Min/Max.


Demand Forecast Methodology

Demand Forecast is the more advanced method. It intelligently predicts your inventory needs by analyzing the last 8 weeks of actual consumption and forecasting the next 4 weeks of demand.

How It Works

1. Historical Usage Analysis (Last 8 weeks)

  • Weekly usage rates for each material

  • Seasonal variations and demand spikes

  • Lead times from suppliers

  • Day-of-week usage patterns

2. Demand Prediction (Next 4 weeks)

  • Trending consumption patterns

  • Seasonal business fluctuations

  • Supplier lead times

  • Expected usage variations

3. Optimal Level Calculation

  • Minimum stock to cover demand until reorder arrives

  • Safety buffer for unexpected spikes

  • Maximum stock to minimize excess inventory

  • Capital efficiency based on coverage level


Understanding the Chart

The Demand Forecast visualization shows:

  • Gray Bars - Actual usage last 8 weeks

  • Green Shaded Area - Predicted demand next 4 weeks

  • Green Line (Min) - Minimum stock to maintain

  • Dashed Line (Max) - Recommended maximum

  • Orange Line - Weeks you might run short


Choosing a Coverage Level

Demand Forecast offers three coverage levels - each represents a risk/efficiency tradeoff:

Lean

  • ~85% of weeks you'll have enough stock

  • Best for: High-turnover items; tight cash flow

  • Stock amount: ~30% less than Balanced

Balanced ⭐ (Recommended)

  • ~90% of weeks you'll have enough stock

  • Best for: Most trade service businesses

  • Stock amount: Standard level

Protected

  • ~92% of weeks you'll have enough stock

  • Best for: Critical items; seasonal businesses

  • Stock amount: ~25% more than Balanced


Rolling Calculation (Alternative Methodology)

Rolling Calculation is a simpler approach that calculates min/max based on your 30-day average usage.

  • Best for: Steady-state businesses with predictable demand

  • Less sophisticated than Demand Forecast

  • Updates more frequently based on recent usage


Enabling Smart Min/Max with Demand Forecast

Step 1: Navigate to Settings

  1. Go to Settings > Procurement > Smart Min/Max

Step 2: Select Demand Forecast

  1. Under Set methodology, select Demand Forecast (instead of Rolling Calculation)

Step 3: Choose Coverage Level

  1. Select Lean, Balanced, or Protected based on your risk tolerance

Step 4: Configure Update Method

  • Suggest Adjustments - Review recommendations before applying

  • Adjust automatically - Apply changes immediately


Reviewing Recommendations

If you have "Suggest Adjustments" enabled, you can check the suggestions and approve/deny them.

  1. Go to Settings > Procurement > Smart Min/Max

  2. Click on Set Up Materials

  3. For each recommendation, you'll see:

    • Old Min/Max (current settings)

    • New Min/Max (Demand Forecast recommendation)

    • Current quantity on hand

  4. Click Accept or Decline for each item


Best Practices

  • Start with Balanced coverage and adjust based on results

  • Check Min/Max Updates weekly

  • Accept recommendations for high-use items

  • Manually manage slow-moving stock

  • Recalculate after major operational changes

  • Enable notifications for pending recommendations


Common Questions

How much historical data is needed?
At least 4-8 weeks. New locations may have limited recommendations until data accumulates.

Can I override recommendations?
Yes. You can Accept or Decline any recommendation, and manually edit min/max values anytime.

What if I'm seasonal?
Demand Forecast learns seasonal patterns over time. Use Protected coverage during peak seasons while it learns.

Does it account for lead times?
Yes. Lead times from suppliers are factored into minimum calculations.

What's the difference from Rolling Calculation?
Demand Forecast is more predictive (uses future forecasts), while Rolling Calculation is reactive (uses 30-day average).


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